Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 20.418279 24.543474 29.099157 34.477753 40.627473 47.412362 55.436084
2025-05-25 13.669518 18.857695 25.208584 33.440887 43.706313 55.957163 71.542979
2025-06-01 10.180595 15.682834 22.981804 33.128739 46.597880 63.575239 86.266440
2025-06-08 7.561753 12.909212 20.541434 31.825653 47.625767 68.467556 97.463751
2025-06-15 6.301490 11.737971 19.984081 32.797782 51.509889 77.073251 113.734901
2025-06-22 4.908339 10.031908 18.312865 31.847978 52.456851 81.590522 124.609190
2025-06-29 4.234717 9.359794 18.090251 32.954994 56.349631 90.313728 141.601939
2025-07-06 3.202858 7.804826 16.164598 31.109411 55.558752 92.160091 148.859126
2025-07-13 2.812866 7.383407 16.094536 32.232008 59.375953 100.902274 166.388158
2025-07-20 2.453512 6.939713 15.905691 33.098790 62.795792 109.168047 183.526440
2025-07-27 2.190616 6.643895 15.940753 34.332577 66.859022 118.573818 202.716457
2025-08-03 1.927337 6.283241 15.789786 35.192395 70.316449 127.155544 220.953891
2025-08-10 1.566197 5.624859 15.015119 34.966589 72.170208 133.723594 237.107744
2025-08-17 1.204661 4.848501 13.863573 33.901421 72.506312 137.936910 249.940083
2025-08-24 0.963078 4.317709 13.146818 33.584999 74.116115 144.274819 266.362868
2025-08-31 0.720645 3.674199 12.025589 32.267418 73.720740 147.156468 277.254928
2025-09-07 0.623844 3.485282 11.988341 33.250338 77.737831 157.763249 301.208684
2025-09-14 0.473509 3.018313 11.126760 32.289989 77.878216 161.583599 313.987520
2025-09-21 0.414823 2.895355 11.177017 33.409290 82.211336 173.004702 339.966971
2025-09-28 0.290634 2.394914 10.027484 31.543180 80.319425 173.109823 346.623143
2025-10-05 0.255359 2.310561 10.110125 32.678290 84.716928 184.871684 373.786974
2025-10-12 0.219814 2.201589 10.092073 33.554675 88.614444 195.857278 399.943444
2025-10-19 0.194887 2.139167 10.214449 34.802046 93.380134 208.646588 429.662527